Atlantic Division: 2021-2022 Season Predictions

After a COVID-ridden season that brought new divisions to the league and a division strict schedule, 2021-22 will see most things go back to normal. We will once again see teams from opposite ends of the countries take on each other. In this piece, I’ll be predicting the Atlantic Division standings. Can the Stanley Cup finalist Montreal Canadiens follow up their playoff run with a solid season? Can the Tampa Bay Lightning once again be dominant? Here’s what I think.

1st – Tampa Bay Lightning

This offseason, the Lightning lost some big pieces on their team, like Blake Coleman, David Savard, Yanni Gourde, and Barclay Goodrow. They traded away Tyler Johnson for Brent Seabrook, who will be placed on a long-term injury reserve. While these players were all key to their two cup victories (Savard only being part of the latest), they did a good job making value signings.

They signed Zach Bogosian on a 3-year deal worth $850,000 AAV; he had a nice season in Toronto last year and brought stability to their third defensive pairing. The Lightning also signed Pierre-Édouard Bellemare to a two-year deal worth $1 million per year. According to Evolving-Hockey, he is a solid defensive centre with a 1.32 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) and can be a good third or fourth-line centre. They also signed Corey Perry to the same deal as Bellemare. He brings a veteran presence and an edge to any lineup and was a key part of the Habs’ playoff run last season. He totalled 21 points in 49 games.

Tampa also got an upgrade at their backup goalie spot, signing Brian Elliott to a one-year deal worth $900,000. He had a tough stretch the past two seasons failing to have a .900 save percentage. Despite Elliott’s recent struggles, he should be a better option than Curtis McElhinney, who barely played and was statistically worse than him. Tampa should keep their spot at the top of the Atlantic Division this season.

2nd – Boston Bruins

I liked the Boston Bruins’ offseason, even with the losses of David Krejci, Sean Kuraly, and Jaroslav Halak. Krejci was a big loss to the Bruins. The 35-year-old had 44 points in 51 games and wasn’t bad on the other side of the puck with a 1.64 xGA/60 last year. Krejci signed in the Czech Republic as part of a family decision.

Now looking forward to their additions, the Bruins brought in goaltender Linus Ullmark on a four-year deal carrying an average annual value (AAV) of $5 million. If he can stay healthy, he is an outstanding goaltender; he posted a .917 save percentage with the Sabres last year in 20 games and was a lone bright spot when he was healthy for the team. The Bruins also locked up veteran forward Nick Foligno for 2 years at $3.8 million per year. He played 42 games, posting seven goals and nine assists for 16 points in a very defensive system. He was traded to Toronto at the Trade Deadline last year, where he only played seven regular-season games posting four points, and played four playoff games, posting one assist.

The Bruins also signed Erik Haula for two years worth $2.375 million per year. He can play centre and posted 21 points in 51 games last year for the Nashville Predators during the regular season. In the playoffs, he played six games and scored four points.

This was not a new acquisition, but the Bruins could re-sign Taylor Hall for four years at $6 million per year. The Bruins traded for Hall from Buffalo at the trade deadline, who, much like the whole team, was not having a great season. Hall played 37 games in Buffalo, scoring only two goals and 17 assists for 19 points; once Hall got to Boston, he was a new player scoring eight goals and six assists in 16 games. The Bruins should have a good season, and I think it could be close between them and the Lightning for first in the Atlantic.

3rd – Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs lost many pieces this offseason like Bogosian, Nick Foligno, Frederik Andersen, and, most notably, Zach Hyman. For most of the season, Hyman was anchored on the first line with Matthews and Marner and posted 15 goals, 18 assists for 33 points in 43 games. Hyman was also solid defensively with a two xGA/60 and was a pain to play against; He got into the corners one puck battles and was also physical, helping Matthews and Marner out a lot.

The Leafs had limited cap space to work with and had to fill holes like a top-six left-winger, a tandem goalie to help out Campbell, and also had to try to improve depth scoring. As you can see, the Leafs were in a tough position with limited cap space and a few holes to cover. Overall I liked the Leafs’ moves signing low-risk deals with high upsides locking guys up like Ondrej Kase, Nick Ritchie, Michael Bunting, and Petr Mrazek.

Kase was signed to a deal worth $1.250 million for 1 year. Kase only played 3 games last year and didn’t post any points, He has struggled a lot with injuries, and the last time he played more than half a season was in the 2019-20 season where he played 49 games, scoring seven goals and 16 assists for a total of 23 points. If the Leafs can help Kase stay healthy as they did with Tyler Ennis in the 2018-19 season, Kase has the upside of a top-six winger or an excellent bottom-six winger who can provide some much-needed depth scoring. The Leafs also signed Nick Ritchie, another Bruin, to a 2-year, $2.5 million yearly. Ritchie scored 15 goals, 11 assists for 26 points in 56 games. Ritchie brings a physical presence to the team they lost now that Bogosian and Hyman left in free agency. This is a bit of an overpayment for me, but I like the player.

Michael Bunting was signed to a 2-year, $950,000 per year contract. Bunting had limited opportunities in Arizona but made the most of his opportunities scoring 10 goals, three assists for 13 points in 21 games. Bunting can be a viable top-six option, but it’s a small contract that the Leafs can bury if he doesn’t work out.

Trying to address the need at the goalie position, the Leafs signed Petr Mrazek to a three-year, $3.8 million deal. Mrazek struggled with injuries last year, only playing 12 games but posted a 0.923 save percentage in those 12 games. Mrazek can definitely be a good tandem option for the Leafs if healthy. Toronto should be good enough in the regular season to make the playoffs, but everybody knows nobody in Leafs nation cares about how good the Leafs are.

4th – Florida Panthers

Florida lost Chris Driedger, Alexander Wennberg, Keith Yandle and Anton Stralman. He isn’t that big of a loss as he was not good in his own end. Stralman had a 2.81 xGA/60, which ranks 122nd among defensemen who played a minimum of 400 minutes of ice time this season. Stralman also only put up nine points in 38 games.

The Panthers didn’t do too much this offseason acquiring Sam Reinhart in a trade, but most of their new pieces were acquired at the deadline last season, like Sam Bennett and Brandon Montour. Florida re-signed Montour to a 3-year deal worth $3.5 million per year. Last year, Montour put up 14 points in 38 games in Buffalo and was traded to Florida; he had four points in 12 games. In his own end, Montour was terrible, posting an xGA/60 of 3.34 according to evolving hockey, he was a bit better once he got traded from Buffalo to Florida, but he needs to take a step up in his play for Florida.

Bill Zito acquired Reinhart from Buffalo in a great trade for the Panthers. Florida gave up goaltending prospect Devon Levi and a conditional first-round pick (the condition being if the pick is in the top ten, then Buffalo gets Florida’s first in 2023) for Reinhart. This past season in Buffalo, Reinhart played 54 games scoring 25 goals and 15 assists for 40 points. I am really excited to see Reinhart out of Buffalo and on a new team. His production should go up now that he’s out of a terrible situation in Buffalo.

Sam Bennett and a 2022 sixth-rounder were traded from Calgary to Florida for Emil Heineman’s signing rights and a 2022 second-rounder. Bennett was traded after being frustrated with his role on the Flames. In Calgary, Bennett had 12 points in 38 games, but he scored three more points in only 10 games when he got tradTampa’s Coleman. That suspension cut Bennett’s number of playoff games down to five instead of six, but in those five games, he scored one goal and four assists in five games.

Rookie goaltender Spencer Knight will have a bigger role this year. Knight played four regular-season games last year, posting a 0.919 save percentage and then playing two games in the playoffs posting a 0.933 save percentage. After Seattle took Chris Driedger, Knight will have to play probably half the games this season, and Florida must hope Sergei Bobrovsky has a bounce-back year after having a tough two years since signing in Florida for 10 million dollars per year with 5 years remaining on the contract. In the past two seasons, Bobrovsky posted a 0.900 and then a 0.906 save percentage last season. Anton Lundell, who Florida drafted 12th overall in the 2020 NHL entry draft, will likely be brought to play this year. Lundell was over a point per game last year in the Finnish league and is also a good two-way centre. I can see Florida making the playoffs as a wild card. However, I don’t think they will make a division playoff spot.

5th – Montreal Canadiens

The Habs have lost Perry, Phillip Danault, Tomas Tatar, and Shea Weber this offseason. Danault was a huge part of the team. While he may not be stellar offensively, he is really valuable on the other side of the puck. Danault was able to shut down top forwards of all the teams the Habs played in the playoffs. Perry signed in Tampa, and that’s another big loss. During the regular season, Perry had 21 points in 49 games, and in the playoffs, he had 10 points in 22 games and was a pain to play against for everybody. Weber will not play this season due to multiple injuries, and that’s a leader and top four defensemen that they’ll be without.

This offseason, the Habs acquired Savard, Mike Hoffman, and Mathieu Perrault. Savard is a nice addition. While he is not a threat offensively, he is solid in his own end. Savard posted a 2.11 xGA/60 in Columbus and a 2.09 xGA/60 for Tampa last season. He is reliable and will most likely be the Habs’ best defensive defenseman.

Mike Hoffman signed in Montreal for three years and $4.5 million per year. I’m not fond of this signing at all. Hoffman is not effective offensively at five on five and is also not good defensively. Mike Hoffman only posted a GF/60 of 2.09 (goals per 60 minutes), which ranks 232nd among forwards who played at least 400 minutes of ice time at five on five. Hoffman is much better on the power play where he posted a GF/60 13.34, which is second among skaters who have played 50 minutes of powerplay time.

Perrault signed a 1-year deal worth $950,000. In Winnipeg, Perrault played 58 games scoring nine goals, 10 assists for 19 points. Perrault can be a good depth piece for the Habs. Montreal went on a nice run in the playoffs last year, but I can’t see another magical year for them. They lost some key pieces this year, and to be honest, their regular season was not well last year. They won 24 games, lost 21, and had 11 overtime losses. They were a playoff-built team, but you need to get there for that to matter. I can see a down year for them.

6th – Ottawa Senators

Ottawa’s team has not really changed much over this offseason. Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson are both restricted free agents, but I can’t see either leaving. Ottawa will rely on their young players to take a step up, and I can see that happening and expect the Sens to be a tough team to play against. Players like Tim Stützle, Tkachuk, Batherson, Connor Brown, and Shane Pinto will all be players to watch next season.

Stützle struggled in his rookie season but definitely showed flashes of being an elite player. I can definitely see him bouncing back and being a key part of Ottawa’s future success. Stuzle played 53 games scoring 12 goals and 17 assists for 29 points. Like I said earlier, Stuzle showed flashes of being a special player, and one play that really stuck out to me was a beautiful toe drag he turned into a backhand pass to Batherson on the power play, which Batherson scored on. The hands and vision to pick out Batherson for a great assist were spectacular.

Tkachuk, for me, is the piece you build around in Ottawa. He brings everything you want in a player with physicality and a scoring touch. Last season Tkachuk played 56 games scoring 17 goals, 19 assists for 36 points. He is a special player, and you need to build around him. If these young players take a step, I can see Ottawa and Montreal being close this season.

7th – Detroit Red Wings

Like Ottawa, Detroit did not lose much of their team during this offseason aside from Jonathan Bernier. However, I think they got a good return for him. Steve Yzerman traded away his signing rights for Calder trophy finalist Alex Nedeljkovic’s signing rights. The Red Wings then signed Nedeljkovic for a 2-year deal worth $3 million per year. Last season Nedeljkovic played 23 games posting a 0.932 save percentage, and in the playoffs, he played nine games posting a 0.920 save percentage. Nedeljkovic is only 25 years old, and most think it was a steal for the Red Wings.

The Red Wings also signed Pius Suter. Last year, he played in Chicago and scored 14 goals and 13 assists for 27 points in 55 games. Suter was a restricted free agent this offseason but was not qualified by Chicago, making him an unrestricted free agent, and the Red Wings signed him to a 2-year deal worth $3.250 million per year.

Detroit is still in a rebuilding phase, and their prospects should start getting shots at the team. While I see them finishing low in the standings, I think Detroit is in good hands with Yzerman as their general manager, and it will be fun to watch when the kids get a chance to play.

8th – Buffalo Sabres

I’m not sure what to say about the Sabres anymore. This might be the worst roster I’ve ever seen. They got a good return for Rasmus Ristolainen as they traded him for a 2021 first-rounder that turned into Isak Rosen and a second-rounder in 2023. They also got Robert Hägg in that deal which is better than Ristolainen but not by much. I thought they should have got more for Reinhart, which wasn’t a fantastic trade, but they still got a first-rounder and Devon Levi, who could be something. The Eichel situation is a mess, and I’m interested to see what they’ll get in return with the confusion surrounding his health. Unfortunately for Sabres fans, there is not much to look forward to this season.

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