Who Will Be The Islanders’ New 1st Line Winger?

On July 21, 2021, Jordan Eberle’s four year tenure with the New York Islanders would come to an end, after being selected by the Seattle Kraken in their expansion draft. The mediocre team he joined in 2017 would be transformed into one of the most formidable squads in the Eastern Conference by the time he left, due in no small part to his contributions. Eberle would record 76 goals and 169 points in 272 games with the Isles and 34 points in 49 playoff games. His 26.1 goals above replacement (GAR) are 3rd most among any Islanders forward since 2017-18, per Evolving Hockey and the trio of him, Mat Barzal and Anders Lee were one of the deadliest lines in the NHL in 2020-21, with an on-ice goals for per 60 (GF/60) of 4.24, ranking them 14th out of 123 lines that played more than 100 minutes together.

This is all to say that whoever replaces Eberle on that top line will have some massive shoes to fill, but the Islanders have a number of candidates to fill it, which is likely part of the reason they felt comfortable leaving Eberle exposed to the Kraken. While each of these candidates have qualities that make them intriguing options to play with Barzal and Lee, there are also elements that appear to hold them back from having the same impact that Eberle did for so long. With that said, let’s take a look at three of these potential replacements and try to determine which one (on paper, at least) could be the best fit for the Islanders’ top line going into the 2021-22 season. 

Josh Bailey 

(2020-21 stats: 8 goals, 35 points, 0.9 WAR)

 To the surprise of many Islanders fans, Josh Bailey was also left unprotected in the expansion draft, but was ultimately passed over in favor of Eberle. On the whole, Bailey had a strong season (and an even stronger playoffs, with 6 goals and 13 points in 19 games), but there were times, especially early on in the year, when Bailey looked flat out lost on the ice. His skating and decision making seemed like they had taken a massive step back, highlighted in his stats by 4 points in the first 13 games and a pathetic 1.32 5v5 GF/60. To his credit, however, he really picked it up the rest of the season, with 31 points in the final 41 games. His 5v5 GF/60 skyrocketed up to a respectable 3.37, while his on-ice expected goals for per 60 at 5v5 jumped from 2.1 to 2.5 and he, with his linemates Brock Nelson and Anthony Beauvillier were ultimately big pieces in the Islanders’ run to and through the playoffs, after a rather rocky start. 

Despite the chemistry those three have had, Bailey is still (to me, anyways), the most likely candidate for that spot on the Islanders top line. In each of the last two seasons, he played with Barzal and Lee for sizable periods of time throughout the season (138 minutes of TOI in 19-20 and 97 in 20-21) and the results haven’t been bad. Most recently in 20-21, that trio put up a 5v5 goals for percentage of 75.5, a 5v5 Corsi for percentage of 50.47 and a 5v5 expected goals percentage of 56.99, meaning that they were both controlling play on the ice and getting extremely positive results while doing it. Should this group get another look this season, their familiarity with each other, plus the success they’ve had in the past could mitigate the effects that losing Eberle will have on the offense. 

Oliver Wahlstrom

(2020-21 stats: 12 goals, 21 points, 0.9 WAR)

Long term, the spot at 1RW should belong to Oliver Wahlstrom. The former 11th overall pick made quite the impact in his rookie season, but the biggest surprise from Wahlstrom this season was what he was doing without the puck, rather than with it. At just 20 years old, Wahlstrom was quick to prove he was more than just a good shot by throwing hits, getting into scrums and playing capable defense in a sheltered role. His 2.2 even strength defensive goals above replacement (EVD) led all Islanders forwards in 20-21, per Evolving Hockey, while his 57 hits ranked 14th among all rookies with 10 or more games played.

  While these qualities helped keep Wahlstrom in the NHL this season, it is his offense that could make him a special player in the NHL for seasons to come. His shot has been his best weapon since before he was drafted and Islanders fans got an exciting glimpse of it this season. Whether it was a one-time slap shot from the left circle or a wrister from the high slot, Wahlstrom was a threat to score every time he put the puck towards the net. While he only accrued 0.7 even strength offensive goals above replacement (EVO) and 1.99 expected goals for per 60 at 5 on 5, the qualities he displayed night in and night out indicate that he was only scratching the surface of what he could be offensively, both at even strength and on the power play. He can keep up with a player like Barzal and create offense for himself and his teammates with and without the puck; it’s just a matter of being able to do these things consistently. While his lack of NHL experience may keep him off the top line for now, it may not be long before we see Wahlstrom up there eventually. 

Kyle Palmieri

(2020-21 stats: 10 goals, 21 points, -0.8 WAR between NJD and NYI)

  After a half-decade stretch of 20+ goal, 2.0 WAR seasons in New Jersey, Kyle Palmieri had a nightmare of a season in 2021. A respectable start (three goals, nine points in his first 12 GP) was followed by a rough slump (five goals, eight points in his next 22 GP) and ended with a trade to the Islanders in early April. Once on Long Island, Palmieri didn’t impress either (two goals, four points in 17 GP), culminating in his first sub-replacement level season since 2010-11, per Evolving Hockey. His on-ice play driving numbers weren’t much better, recording a goals for share of 45.43%, a Corsi for share of 49.67% and an expected goals for share of 48.78%. 

  Of course, Palmieri would cap off his dreadful season with a memorable playoff, scoring seven goals and nine points in 19 games, including the overtime winner in the Islanders’ playoff opener against the Pittsburgh Penguins. This impressive stretch, plus his history as an analytical darling and prolific goal scorer seem to have been enough for the Islanders brass to want to keep Palmieri around long term, although as of writing, Palmieri has yet to officially sign a contract. 

  Signing a 30-year-old who has already shown signs of regression to a long-term contract is a risky proposition. Expecting him to put up the first-line production is even riskier. However, Palmieri has always been more than his ability to score goals. Since 15-16 (his first season in New Jersey), Palmieri has accrued 6.3 EVD, which is 84th out of 787 forwards with 250 minutes of TOI over that span. His 2.3 on-ice 5v5 expected goals against per 60 over that span is also around average — less impressive than the defensive goals above replacement, but still noteworthy, considering the offense he still manages to provide. Palmieri seems more like more of a secondary option at this point in his career, but he showed in New Jersey for years that he could handle first-line duties. Perhaps if the Isles are looking to keep the Beauvillier-Nelson-Bailey line together, while also continuing to hold Wahlstrom in the bottom-6, Palmieri could be the one getting the call to man the top line position next to Barzal and Lee. 

Honorable Mentions

  The last two players we’ll briefly look at as options for the Islanders’ top line next season are Anthony Beauvillier and Zach Parise. These players are both left-wingers and, assuming both are signed next season, have pretty apparent spots on the roster at second-line LW and third-line LW, respectively. However, both have rather interesting offensive profiles that are worthy of at least some mention. Beauvillier is a jack-of-all-trades type player, who doesn’t necessarily fit in any one play style, but still manages to be incredibly impactful every time he steps on the ice. He possesses great skating ability, a high hockey IQ and a nice wrist shot, all of which are intriguing attributes to have on a line with Barzal. But to the disappointment of many Islanders fans, the two have rarely played together over the last two seasons, spending just over 200 minutes together at 5v5 over the last two seasons. Considering what each of these players bring to the table, it’s hard to blame head coach Barry Trotz for wanting to keep them on their own lines and that’s what I expect will happen again in 21-22. 

  Zach Parise, on the other hand, is coming off a down year with the Minnesota Wild and headed into his age 37 season, inching further and further away from his years as one of the premier offensive talents in the league. However, he still managed to contribute positively to the Wild last season, recording 0.8 wins above replacement, a 5v5 goals for share of 55.99%, and a 5v5 expected goals for a share of 54.17%. Parise saw his time on the power play greatly diminished last season and saw a massive spike in his share of defensive zone faceoffs and zone starts, indicating that there’s probably a little more production to be had out of him than the 7 goals and 18 points he recorded last season. The Islanders could opt to try him on the top line, where Barzal and Lee could set up his still-dangerous shot, but after a competent defensive season and the Isles’ ability to get the most out of their players defensively, Parise seems destined and capable to fill the hole at 3LW after all. 

Conclusion

  Whether you saw Jordan Eberle as a legitimate first-line winger or simply a miscast second line one, it’s hard to dispute the impact he had during his time on Long Island. Allowing Seattle to select him in exchange for nothing in return will almost certainly negatively impact the team’s depth next season, even if rumored acquisitions like Palmieri and Parise will indeed join the team. But the gaping hole also provides an opportunity for someone to step up and accept a bigger role on a team with Stanley Cup aspirations, both next season and in the future. The Islanders will have to hope that one of these five can do just that if they want to be hoisting that trophy next spring.

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