What Does The Andrei Svechnikov Signing Mean For Brady Tkachuk And The Ottawa Senators?

Yesterday, the Carolina Hurricanes signed star winger Andrei Svechnikov to an eight-year, $62 million contract, with an AAV of $7.75 million per season.

Svechnikov, drafted second overall in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, has been nothing short of an impact winger for the Hurricanes in his three seasons with the organization. He jumped into the NHL immediately after being drafted and had himself a relatively solid rookie season in 2018-19, scoring 20 goals, scoring a total of 37 points over the span of an 82-game season.

In his sophomore season, which was shortened due to a certain all-too-familiar global health crisis, Svechnikov exploded in production, scoring at nearly a point-per-game pace, notching 24 goals and 37 assists for a total of 61 points in 68 games played. This performance would cement his position as Carolina’s top-line right-winger, as he proved to both himself and the league that he is a force to be reckoned with on the ice.

This past season, Svechnikov saw a slight step back in production, which can be excused due to the abnormality of the 2020-21 NHL season for everybody involved. That being said, Svechnikov still put up an impressive 0.76 points per game, putting up 15 goals and 27 assists in the process, totalling 42 points in 55 games.

Over his short NHL career thus far, Svechnikov has been an outstanding play-driver, however his defensive game leaves a bit to be desired. Poor defensive game and all, he’s absolutely proven to everyone thus far that he’s well worth every penny of his 62 million dollar contract.

Andrei Svechnikov’s 2018-2021 RAPM chart, via. EvolvingHockey

Overall a great signing by the Hurricanes, one that will continue to benefit their team for years to come.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR BRADY TKACHUK AND THE SENS?

Similar to Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk was also a top-five selection in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. Being selected fourth-overall, Tkachuk stepped into the National Hockey League right after being drafted and even out-performed the player drafted two spots ahead of him in their respective rookie seasons. In only 71 games as opposed to Svechnikov’s 82, Tkachuk scored 22 goals and 23 assists, for 45 total points. An amazing rookie season for the team’s brightest young winger at the time.

However, during the next two seasons, Tkachuk and the struggling Senators would reside towards the bottom of the league, meanwhile, the Hurricanes continued to improve and grow as a team season after season.

Brady Tkachuk’s sophomore season saw him mirror exactly what he accomplished the season prior, albeit with less help around him after the departure of players such as Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, and more. He once again played 71 games, tallied 23 assists, however, his goal-scoring saw a reduction from 22 to 21.

Interestingly enough, during the 2020-21 NHL Season, Tkachuk was on pace to score 22 goals, 24 assists, for 46 points over 71 games. He has remained scarily consistent in scoring throughout his career, but this is bound to see an improvement as the Senators develop and grow as a team.

In terms of the so-called “intangibles” that Tkachuk brings to his team… I know, I know, get your laughs in now, but Tkachuk has established himself as the leader in Ottawa’s young locker room, stepping into the role with ease and taking on the challenges of a leader exceptionally well for such a young player. It’s easy to understand why Tkachuk is at the forefront of captaincy talks for the Ottawa Senators, and we’ve heard from numerous reports that an eight-year contract with the organization could include him receiving the “C” on his jersey as a sweetener for Tkachuk’s camp.

Tkachuk is an amazing player in transition and is an expected goals wizard. Again, similar enough to Svechnikov, Tkachuk lacks an impactful defensive game.

Brady Tkachuk’s 2018-2021 RAPM chart, via. EvolvingHockey

HEAD-TO-HEAD — TKACHUK vs. SVECHNIKOV (2018-2021)

PRODUCTION

Svechnikov: 205GP, 59G-81A-140PTS

Tkachuk: 198GP, 60G-65A-125PTS

ADVANCED STATS (Goals Above Replacement, Wins Above Replacement, Even Strength Offence, Even Strength Defence)

Svechnikov: 17.4 GAR, 3.1 WAR, 24.1 EVO, -7.2 EVD

Tkachuk: 14.9 GAR, 2.9 WAR, 16.7 EVO, -5.7 EVD

STRENGTHS

Svechnikov: Offensive dominance, play-driving, shooting, hands

Tkachuk: Transitional game, tenacity, leadership, consistency

WEAKNESSES

Svechnikov: Defence

Tkachuk: Defence

CONTRACT PREDICTION

When all is said and done, Brady Tkachuk and Andrei Svechnikov are two phenomenal wingers who will continue to torch the league for years to come. There are many similarities in their play styles, yet they both have distinct qualities which differentiate them from each other.

I don’t believe we will see Tkachuk making as much money per season as Svechnikov, as it’s clear which one of the two has been the better player so far in their young careers. That being said, Tkachuk’s camp will undoubtedly use Svechnikov’s recent contract as a comparable, something we’ve seen happen many times in the past with RFA negotiations.

Ultimately, I believe both the team and the player will meet at an eight-year, $56 million deal, with an annual average value of $7M per season. Additionally, once the contract is signed, I believe the team will announce their decision for the 10th captain in franchise history, the honours of which will go to the newly re-signed Brady Tkachuk, who will step onto the ice repping the “C” on his shoulder on opening night, hopefully in an arena packed to the brim with Sens fans in attendance.

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