The Short Lived Matt Murray Revenge Tour: Senators Week 2 Analysis (Oct 18-24)

Week two has officially finished in a regular season that appears to be going a little too fast right now. The Senators only played two games, yet find themselves near the bottom of the Atlantic Division with a 2-3-0 record; going 0-2-0 this week. The week was mired in some negative and frustrating storylines, but despite the 0-2-0 record this week, there were a lot of positives to take out.

For those who don’t know, my name is Caden Inaba and I will be doing a weekly breakdown of every Senators game here on Puck Empire. My aim is to provide Sens fans with in-depth advanced analysis of the numbers to see how the team is doing. I want this to essentially be a “if you missed the game, know exactly what happened” type of deal. I’m super flexible with this series and really want to cater to what Sens fans are interested in, so please, feel free to use the comment section!

Note: All stats are collected from MoneyPuck, Natural Stat Trick, and Evolving-Hockey. Stats may differ depending on which website and stat algorithm is used. However, most narratives are generally consistent with the stats presented.

Game #4: Ottawa Senators vs. San Jose Sharks (L 1-2) (2-2-0)

The week started off with a home matinee against the San Jose Sharks. One key note from this game was it being the first of Matt Murray’s 2021-22 season. The Senators gave Murray a four year, $25 million ($6,250,000 AAV) contract before the 2020-21 season, and as all Sens fans know, he had a really up and down year. That season, he finished with a 3.38 GAA and a.893 SV%, which was only slightly better than the previous year. If Murray was going to be the guy and prove himself as an NHL starter going forward, it was going to be this year. Well, exactly that happened in this game. Murray played a solid game, putting up a Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) of +0.32, and a SV% of .917. However, despite this showing, Murray did allow a really weak glove side shot to Kevin Labanc that was eventually overturned for offside. The glove side shots have always been a weak aspect of Murray’s game, and will need to level out his inconsistencies when it comes to those shots in the future.

This game also featured another highly anticipated season debut, that being Brady Tkachuk. The soon-to-be-named captain was looking to make an impression on home ice after signing a seven-year, $57.5 million ($8,330,674 AAV) contract right before opening night. Tkachuk had a really great game, putting up an Expected Goals For (xGF) of 0.583 and an Expected Goals Percentage (xG%) of 76.72%, for third on the team. Oh yeah, he also got an assist off Josh Norris’ power-play goal as well. Tkachuk’s net front presence has been sorely missed through the previous three games of the season, and him being back is a much needed spark the team needs back in their lineup.

In terms of overall play, the Senators mopped the floor with the Sharks, putting up an xG% of 60.90%, particularly led by the always great line of Tkachuk-Norris-Drake Batherson (79.2 xG%). This was especially present in the third period, as the Senators absolutely piled on the pressure with 11 shots and a team xG% of 72.19%. Unfortunately, James Reimer had other plans for the game. Reimer finished the night with a SV% of .968 and a +2.56 GSAA on 31 shots, and now brings his record against the Senators to 16-6-3 with a .927 SV%. Reimer just loves playing the Senators and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sharks purposely chose Reimer for this game because of those historical stats.

Unfortunately, all the positives about this game turned on their end after it was announced that Shane Pinto suffered a shoulder injury that’s likely going to keep him out of games for a couple weeks. It was just a super frustrating result, as Pinto was sixth on the team for xGF, really connecting with his linemates Nick Paul and Connor Brown, and decimates an already brutally shallow center position for the Senators. The report as of writing this is “a couple of weeks”, however, if Pinto is expected to miss any more time, don’t be surprised if the Senators shoot for the likes of a Dylan Strome to fulfill their awful center depth.

Game #5: Ottawa Senators vs. New York Rangers (L 2-3) (2-3-0)

Game five presents itself with a matchup against the New York Rangers, which was nothing but one of the most frustrating games to ever watch, not only as a Sens fan, but just as a fan of the game in general. This game started relatively similar compared to lots of the other games this season. The Senators were playing a fantastic defensive game, up 2-0, had outplayed the Rangers to an xG rate of 2.10 to 1.64. Not to mention, the Sens were up 2-0 with just over five minutes left to play, and had a win percentage of 96.88%. If you didn’t watch this game, you’re probably asking, how does that end in a 3-2 loss?

There are lots of factors we’ll dive into shortly, but I do really want to discuss how great the team played in the first 55 minutes. Tim Stutzle put on an absolute clinic today, putting up an assist, an xG% rate of 87.5% at 5v5, and drew four penalties to cap it all off. He was absolutely everywhere, especially in the transition game, which he’s looked much stronger in compared to last season. It’s also awfully fitting that Stutzle decided to do this in a game against fellow draft class member Alexis Lafreniere, who had an extremely quiet game and only managed to touch the puck a couple of times. It’s awfully early, but I think it’s safe to say that Ottawa is happy with who they got at third so far.

The Chabot-Zub pairing was also a massive highlight as well, putting up xG% rates of 87.5% and 88.71% respectively. Both also put up absolutely ridiculous time-on-ice (TOI) numbers, with 27:02 and 24:34, yet still managed to place 4th and 5th on the team for Expected Goals Against (xGA) with 0.11 and 0.09. For how many minutes they played, it’s a miracle how well they played both sides of the ice and it was one of the most dominating performances I’ve seen from a Sens pairing in a while.

Lastly, Matt Murray was also fantastic as well. In 54:17 TOI, Murray allowed one goal with a .957 SV% and a 1.31 GSAA. Murray’s only goal allowed was a high danger scoring opportunity that he really stood no chance on, while also making a save of the year contender on a wide open shot from Sammy Blais. Murray was absolutely electric tonight and really gave all the Sens fans hope that Murray was going to put the team on his back and lead them to a 2-1 victory. Unfortunately, that was short lived. During the goal sequence, Chris Kreider ended up kneeing Murray in the head and forced him into concussion protocol, ending one of Murray’s best starts in a Senators jersey. It was an almost unheard of accident for Kreider, who usually intentionally injures goalies rather than accidentally injuring them. However, knowing Kreider, he would later end up boarding Norris on the numbers, which will almost certainly result in a fine from the Department of Player Safety.

Everything was okay though. The Sens were up 2-1 with just under five minutes to wind off the clock. Remember earlier when we discussed that Stutzle drew four penalties? Unfortunately, the fourth one came with a little caveat. Stutzle was driving up the left side of the neutral zone and was tripped up by Jacob Trouba. The stick wasn’t even in Trouba’s hands and the evidence was in between Stutzle’s legs. The Sens were headed to the power-play and could either get the insurance marker or just wind two minutes off the clock to only give the Rangers two minutes left to try and tie the game. Right?

Except for the fact that Stutzle was simultaneously given an embellishment penalty. Even as a likely biased Sens fan, drawing four penalties in one game is probably impossible without a little selling. The argument for a make-up call is understandable. However, for such an obvious tripping penalty, it was truly inexcusable to call that at such a key moment in the game. After the trip, the game was now 4v4 against two of the most creative, best playmakers in the game; those being Artemi Panarin and Adam Fox.

Despite this, you’d think the team could still pull it off. The Sens had Forsberg coming in, who’s put together two brilliant starts for the Sens and surely would’ve given them a chance to win. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case and eventually allowed two goals on three shots, none of which were high-danger opportunities. It’s really hard to blame Forsberg though; he came in cold and was put in a situation one could only write in a movie script.

Those two goals eventually sealed the deal for the Senators, who couldn’t make a comeback. This was mostly in part because of the aforementioned Kreider boarding play that put the Senators in a spot where they would’ve had to score in ten seconds to win. It’s unbelievable how much a sports game can change on its heels. But it happened.

Overall Play

It’s just such an unfortunate result for a team that has really played so well. Going into this game, the Senators currently have a 2.76 Expected Goals For Per 60 (xGF/60), which is good enough for sixth in the NHL. However, they are simultaneously 31st in the league for Goals For Above Expected with a rate of -5.12. Essentially, the Senators are doing a fantastic job at generating offense, but have been getting really unlucky so far. We’ll see what the next week for the Senators holds, and hopefully, it’s a better one than this one.

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