All-Star Break: NHL Award Picks

To say this season has had a bunch of surprising players both positively and negatively would be an understatement. This article will read the top 5 candidates for each major award.

Calder Memorial Trophy – best rookie

1. RD Moritz Seider, DET

Easily the most impressive blueliner so far, Seider has showcased his skills at a high degree at both ends of the ice this season. Drafted sixth overall in 2019, the German was hyped up coming into this season due to his size and defensive prowess. He got it going in the NHL very quickly, and has not slowed down since. He is on pace for about 50 points this season, which would lead all rookie defencemen by far. His analytics are very impressive as well, ranking fourth among rookies in both GAR and xGAR with 6.8 and 5.6, respectively. He will become a household name in the Motor City, if he already is not one.

2. C Anton Lundell, FLA

After a huge 5-assist night to cap off his January, the Finn has made a huge jump in the rankings. Tied for second in rookie points with 32 in 43 games, Lundell has been a solid contributor to the Panthers’ great season thus far. Also second among rookies in GAR with 10.1, Lundell has been no fraud analytically. Picked with the 12th overall pick in 2020, there were always meaningless doubts among critics that Lundell has little offensive upside, but now he is at a 60-point pace as a 20-year-old. On top of the very good offence, Lundell also leads all forwards in takeaways with 47.

3. C Trevor Zegras, ANA

Already becoming one of hockey’s most popular players thanks to his flashiness, he is a pretty good hockey player too. Zegras was picked 9th overall by the Ducks back in 2019 and is on pace to be the franchise’s next big star. He is currently top 2 in points among rookies in a tie with the player above with 32 in 42 games. In just half a season, Zegras has pulled off the “Michigan” move and the first ever “Michigan” pass. It only serves him right that one of the most entertaining players in the league is top 3.

4. RW Lucas Raymond, DET

This is a bit controversial. There are many people who would have young Swede higher than this, likely even in first place. It is important to note that this is one of the more tighter Calder races we have seen, with no clear frontrunner like in past seasons. Raymond lands fourth on this list. He leads all NHL rookies in points with 35 in 47 games and has been detrimental on his quest to keep the Red Wings afloat. The 2020 4th overall pick was at one point the consensus frontrunner, but he has slowed down a bit as of late, with just one goal in his past 22 games.

5. LW Michael Bunting, TOR

Some argue that he should not be considered for this award due to his age; he is 26-years-old. However, the NHL says he is eligible and is therefore on this list. Now to the player: he has been very good. He leads all rookies in GAR and xGAR with 12.1 and 8.8 respectively, which on its own is enough to consider putting him higher. Bunting is tied fourth in points among all rookies with 29 in 42 games and second in goals with 13. Another cool stat of his is that he and Connor McDavid lead the NHL in penalties drawn, with 26. The Leafs definitely got more than what they expected when they signed him as a free agent in the summer.

Others considered: RW Tanner Jeannot (NSH), G Alex Nedeljkovic (DET), RW Seth Jarvis (CAR)

Frank J. Selke Trophy – best defensive forward

1. C Patrice Bergeron, BOS

Rename the award at this point. No other forward has more DEF (5.5) or xDEF (6) than the 36-year-old Bruin. He ranks second in even strength defence (EVD) with 4.6, and is converting an unbelievable 63% of his faceoffs. Not much else to say other than that he is arguably the greatest two-way forward of all-time.

2. C Auston Matthews, TOR

The best goal-scorer in the league is also one of the league’s premier defensive forwards. Matthews is currently fourth among all forwards in DEF with 3.8, and is seventh in xDEF with 3.9. Many people put up an argument that since Matthews does not kill penalties, then he should be not be considered for this award. While it is not a bad argument, this just means that he is a monster at even strength (and he is). He is also tied for second among forwards in takeaways with 44, and is 56% on draws.

3. C Ryan O’Reilly, STL

The winner of this award three seasons ago is back and looking strong once again. The Blues captain is currently eighth in DEF with 3.4, and fifth in xDEF among all forwards with 4.1. He boasts very strong stick skills as well, as he ranks in the top 30 forwards for takeaways with 30, and is 56% at the faceoff circle.

4. C Anthony Cirelli, TBL

After a dip in play last season, Cirelli is back and better than ever before. He currently ranks eleventh in DEF with 3.1 and third in xDEF with 4.5. His EVD of 3.6 is also fourth best among forwards in the NHL, and is second in the expected version of the statistic with 5. A big part of the Lightning penalty kill, he ranks 33rd among all forwards in short-handed ice time.

5. C Roope Hintz, DAL

A guy that got off to a slow start in all facets of the game was able to pick it up quickly, and does not look to be stopping anytime soon. Hintz ranks second among all forwards in DEF with 4.2, and he owes a lot of that credit to his short-handed play which is top 15 (10th in xSHD with 1.4, and 14th in SHD with 1.3).

Others considered: LW Artturi Lehkonen (MTL), LW Brad Marchand (BOS), C Joe Pavelski (DAL)

James Norris Memorial Trophy – best defenceman

1. RD Cale Makar, COL

Only 23-years-old and already one of the most talented defencemen the game has ever seen. His xGAR is the best in the NHL this season, and by far the best among d-men. He is on pace to have the most xGAR in one season since the stat began to be tracked in the 2007-08 season. Not to mention that he is on pace for well over 30 goals (18 goals in 40 games so far), which is something that has not been done by a defenceman since Mike Green over a decade ago. If his other-worldly offence was not enough, he is also an above average defender.

2. LD Victor Hedman, TBL

Like his Selke teammate Cirelli, he had a poor 2020-21 season (his Norris candidacy was undeserved), but has bounced back immensely this season. He is currently tied for first in points among blueliners with 47 in 46 games. His defensive play has been notable this season, rising by about 6 in xDEF when compared to last season. His play driving has been excellent this season as he is ranked sixth in xOFF. Just your common Victor Hedman season.

3. RD Aaron Ekblad, FLA

After having a very impressive season cut short last year, the first overall pick in 2014 has returned with his best hockey to date. He is the backbone of the Panthers defensive core, and has been on arguably the best defence pair this season alongside MacKenzie Weegar. Ekblad is currently fifth in points among defencemen with 41 in 46 games, and ranks third among all d-men in xEVO and xGAR, and is first in GAR which is extremely impressive.

4. RD Adam Fox, NYR

Lots of people would argue that the reigning winner of this award should be higher, but we have to remember that it is all very tight. Anyways, Fox is having another great season. Among blueliners, he ranks: first in points and assists with 47 and 40, respectively, in 44 games, top 10 in GAR, xEVO, xOFF and xGAR.

5. LD Miro Heiskanen, DAL

I am going to tell the truth: before the season started, I thought Heiskanen was the most overrated player in the NHL. There was no doubt that he had potential to become an elite defender, but at that moment I was not very high on him. This has completely changed this season as the Finnish defenceman has become one of the league’s top defensive players. He currently ranks second in DEF, EVD, and xEVD, while being third in xDEF. To go along with those elite defensive ranks, Heiskanen also has a respectable 27 points in 42 games, which is 19th among d-men.

Others considered: LD Jaccob Slavin (CAR), LD Devon Toews (COL), LD Roman Josi (NSH)

Vezina Trophy – best goaltender

1. G Igor Shesterkin, NYR

There is absolutely no doubt for who the frontrunner for this award should be, and it only makes sense that it is Henrik Lundqvist’s successor. Shesterkin leads all goalies in GSAx and GSAA with 22.68 and 23.81, respectively. His 2.10 GAA is good for third in the league, his .937 Sv% is good second, and his 22-5-2 record is impeccable. This man was not a Calder nominee last season, by the way, nor was he voted into the upcoming All-Star Game. Both are travesties.

2. G Frederik Andersen, CAR

After two more-than-rough seasons with the Maple Leafs, it was evident that he needed a change of scenery, and boy has it helped him. The Danish netminder is having his best season yet, and finds himself second on this list. He is just behind Shesterkin in GSAx with 22.07, and owns a third-best GSAA of 15.37. He also boasts as .929 Sv% which is good for third among all qualified goalies.

3. G Juuse Saros, NSH

Still an underrated goalie, Saros has been standing on his head for over three seasons now. He has been a massive part of the unexpected success of the Predators, and it makes sense since he has played in more games than any other goalie this season with 38 already. Saros holds the fifth-best GSAx in the league this season with 15.81, as well as a masterful .927 Sv% which is fourth best currently.

4. G John Gibson, ANA

After a couple down years for his standards, Gibson is back. Behind a suspect Ducks defensive core, the American tendy has accumulated the third-best GSAx in the NHL with 17.93, along with an impressive .922 Sv%. He has undoubtedly been the MVP in Anaheim, as they push for a playoff spot.

5. G Tristan Jarry, PIT

One of the worst playoff performances in NHL history belongs to the Penguins goalie. Many people including myself can safely say that he single-handedly cost his team a second round berth, and that he should have not been the opening night goalie this season. Good thing athletes learn from their mistakes, which is what Jarry did. He is top 10 in GSAx with 10.9, and holds a .923 Sv% to go along with his very good 23-8-6 record. His 2.21 GAA is also very good considering he has been heavily relied on this season, playing in a second-most 37 games.

Others considered: G Jack Campbell (TOR), G Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA), G Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL)

Hart Memorial Trophy – most valuable player

1. G Igor Shesterkin, NYR

This has been a narrative over the past few weeks, and I fully agree with it. His unreal stats have already been stated for his case for the Vezina above. I was saving a stat for the Hart debate though: his goals above replacement. This may seem like a sketchy stat for a goaltender, but it tells a similar story to other goaltending stats. He currently owns a 33.1 GAR, which is a whopping 9.9 more than the next best goalie. The Rangers have the fifth most points in the NHL right now, and if Shesterkin was a league-average goaltender, I honestly do not think they would be in the playoffs. In games Shesterkin does not start, the Rangers are 8-8-2. The Rangers at even strength have the fifth-lowest GAR in the NHL, behind teams like the Coyotes, Sabres, and Kraken. He is carrying them.

2. C Auston Matthews, TOR

He already has a case for the Selke, so it is only fitting that his top-of-the-line goal-scoring puts him in the Hart conversation. Matthews is tied for first in the NHL for xGAR with 22.1, and that number is supported by both his offence and defence. He is on pace for 60 goals over a full 82-game season, proving last season was not fraudulent (it never was to begin with), as well as over 40 assists which would be a new career-high. Combine that with his already-mentioned defence, and that is a Hart candidate.

3. RW Mikko Rantanen, COL

With injuries to both of his linemates at different points in this season, it’s hard to imagine that Rantanen has found consistency: but he has, and he is playing better than ever before. He leads the NHL in GAR with 17.8, which is also balanced between his offence and defence. His OFF is second in the league with 14.2, and his DEF is top 30 among forwards with 2.4. He has the sixth most points in the NHL with 54, and 24 are goals. He has the ability to carry a line on his own.

4. LW Johnny Gaudreau, CGY

Only 5’9 but that clearly does not matter. Gaudreau had a down 2020 and 2021 seasons (for his standards), but has returned with his some of his best hockey to date. His 54 points are tied for sixth in the NHL with the player above him on this list. Of those 54 points, 28 of them are primary assists which is the most in the NHL, and his 46 primary points are good for second in the league. His 44 even strength points are also the most in the NHL this season. He has the fourth-highest GAR in the NHL with 14.2, and his xEVO is top 10 at 10.9. He has once again become underrated.

5. LW Alex Ovechkin, WSH

He just will not age. “The Great Eight” is back in the top 5 for both goals and points after a concerning 2021 for his standards. On pace for yet another 50-goal season as he has 29 in 46 games, to go along with his equal amount of assists. Like Gaudreau, he has been a beast at even strength, as he is tied with him for points at EV with 44, but leads in goals with 21. He is lower than Gaudreau because of his analytics, which are not bad, but could be better. With that being said, he has an impressive 10.4 xEVO which is good for 13th in the NHL. Wayne Gretzky should be worried about his record.

Others considered: C Nazem Kadri (COL), LW Jonathan Huberdeau (FLA), RD Cale Makar (COL)

There is still a lot of closeness between the candidates for some awards, and it will be interesting to see how these races finish.

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