After back-to-back seasons in the third round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, the New York Islanders appear to be sellers as the 2022 NHL trade deadline approaches. The list of potential departures is well known; forwards Cal Clutterbuck and Zach Parise and defensemen Andy Greene and Zdeno Chara are all pending unrestricted free agents who will likely gain lots of attention from contenders looking to pick up cheap depth, while defenseman Scott Mayfield and goaltender Semyon Varlamov each have a year left on their contracts and have proven to be impact players in the recent past. I recently typed up an in-depth report on Mayfield’s potential to be traded and what the Islanders could get back for him that can be found here.
While Islanders fans may be dreading losing some of the names listed above, they won’t be losing them for nothing; new names and faces will be coming in and those players could have an impact on the team as soon as next month. So let’s take a look at some established names that the Isles could look at acquiring for some of their veteran talent on or before March 21.
Jake DeBrusk (W)
21-22 stats: 45 games played, 9 goals, 17 points, 51.64 xGF%, 0 WAR
Jake DeBrusk’s career has taken quite an unfortunate turn over the last few seasons. After Boston famously reached for him at the 2015 draft, DeBrusk proved he was a first round caliber talent in his first three seasons in the league, scoring 120 points in his first 203 NHL games and accruing 6.9 wins above replacement, per Evolving Hockey. DeBrusk also showed up in the playoffs, scoring 14 goals in his first 49 playoff games and played in every game of the Bruins’ 2019 Stanley Cup Finals run.
But over the last two seasons, DeBrusk has been on the decline. His 2020-21 season was an absolute disaster, resulting in the first sub-replacement level campaign of the season and he is in the midst of a second in 2021-22. His 31 points in 86 games pale in comparison to the lofty totals he put up in the first years of his career and back in December, DeBrusk formally requested a trade out of Boston. He will make $3.675 million against the salary cap for the rest of this season before becoming a restricted free agent this summer.
DeBrusk’s floor is clearly pretty low, but he’s also shown that his ceiling is very high. The year he scored 27 goals for the B’s, he was also one of their better defensive forwards allowing just 1.92 expected goals against per 60 and accruing 3.2 defensive goals above replacement. Speaking of GAR, DeBrusk was one of the most valuable players on the power play during the 2019-20 season, recording 5.1 goals above replacement when on the man advantage and helping Boston score on the power play over a quarter of the time.
DeBrusk is a jack of all trades – he just hasn’t been able to put it all together for a couple of seasons now. Perhaps a change of scenery and lower expectations on Long Island can help him re-find his game and bring him back to relevance.
Kevin Stenlund (C/W)
20-21 stats: 32 games played, 5 goals, 10 points, 47.57% xGF%, 0.7 WAR
Kevin Stenlund is in an interesting situation. A second round pick in 2015, Stenlund played about half of the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets and put up both modest point totals and underlying numbers in their bottom six in his 64 total games. He signed a one year deal as an RFA to stay with a Blue Jackets team that looked headed for a deep rebuild.
But then, things went south. Stenlund was placed on waivers at the end of training camp, went unclaimed and was demoted to the AHL, where he has spent most of the season. In the three NHL games he did play in early November, he was used very sparingly. His AHL numbers are not bad at all – nine goals and 19 points in 30 games – and his prior experience in the NHL may help him get another job in the world’s best league soon. According to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Edmonton Oilers may already be interested in the 25-year old Swedish forward.
The Islanders should be too. Stenlund was a solid defensive forward with the Jackets, who were a pretty bad defensive team in 20-21 (and are even worse this season). Stenlund’s 5v5 on-ice expected goals against per 60 was 0.18 goals lower than his average teammate, while his 5v5 on-ice Corsi against per 60 was a whopping 5.38 attempts lower, per Evolving Hockey’s Relative to Teammate stat. Although he isn’t overly physical (less than a hit per game over the course of his career), his 6’4,” 210 pound frame is an asset that Barry Trotz and Co. could do a lot with on Long Island. With players like Cal Clutterbuck potentially being on their way out, replacing him with a younger, right shot forward who is bigger and more skilled could go a long way to upgrading the team’s “Identity Line” in the future.
Edmonton’s Goalies
Mikko Koskinen, Mike Smith, Stuart Skinner and Olivier Rodrigue
Anyone who follows the NHL closely enough knows the Oilers’ goaltending has not been good this year. The regular tandem of Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith have a combined goals saved above expected (GSAx) of about -15 and neither has a save percentage above .900. Rookie netminder Stuart Skinner has a .913 save percentage and a 1.01 GSAx in his 13 games and he will likely be their best internal option in the near future while top prospect Ilya Konovalov develops.
It’s hard to see the Oilers going anywhere with this trio in net, which is why the Isles sending Semyon Varlamov (.916 save percentage, 2.19 GSAx) to Edmonton seems like it could be a win for both teams. Despite a borderline Vezina-worthy season in 2020-21, Varlamov was injured to start 2021-22 and has since played second fiddle to his young countryman Ilya Sorokin, who has proven to be more than capable of being an NHL starter. In moving the older of their two starting-caliber goalies, the Isles could take advantage of their embarrassment of riches and net some nice future assets to add to a weak farm system.
But if a Varlamov trade does come to fruition, the Oilers will likely need to ship one of their goalies out, while the Islanders will need one back. Koskinen, an Islanders’ draft pick in 2009, has arguably performed the worst of the three and has the highest cap hit, at $4.5 million. However, his contract expires at the end of this season, making him merely a money-balancing piece, barring some kind of hot streak. Smith is much cheaper at just $2.2 million against the cap, but has another year on his contract, lengthy injury history and is notoriously inconsistent. That said, the Oilers could offer more to a trade partner for taking on his contract, something the Islanders should definitely consider if the opportunity presents itself.
The Islanders could also ask about Olivier Rodrigue, a second round pick from 2018 who has struggled in both the QMJHL and AHL since being drafted and is currently playing for Edmonton’s ECHL affiliate in Wichita. While his stock has fallen a bit since being drafted, some goaltenders take longer to develop and Rodrigue’s pedigree still makes him an appealing prospect. At just 21 years old, he is still very young for a goalie and with Sorokin under contract for two more seasons after this one, there would be little urgency for both Rodrigue and the Islanders’ organization to get him to the NHL any time soon.
Conclusion
The trade deadline is always an opportunity, both for the buyers and the sellers. For the Islanders, seizing the opportunity to acquire younger players and working with them to help them reach their potential is a must if they want to try to get back into Cup contention next season. None of the players discussed in this piece are guaranteed to become or re-emerge as an impact player in the NHL. But each of them offers something that could make them a valuable piece on the 2022-23 New York Islanders. Now it’s up to the front office to figure out if they will be.